Get ready to mark your calendars, because 2026 is shaping up to be a blockbuster bonanza! Four movies are poised to shatter the $1 billion box office barrier, and we're here to break down which ones have the best shot at achieving this monumental feat. But here's where it gets controversial: can any of them truly guarantee that kind of success? And this is the part most people miss—the factors that could make or break their chances.
In 2025, four films—Ne Zha 2, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash—crossed the billion-dollar mark, with Ne Zha 2 relying heavily on international audiences. This year, we're betting on four contenders again, though a surprise fifth entry like Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey could always shake things up. Let's dive into the top four and rank their odds of hitting that magical number.
4) *The Mandalorian & Grogu*
Disney is taking a calculated risk by returning to the Star Wars galaxy with this theatrical release, eight years after the underwhelming Solo: A Star Wars Story. While The Mandalorian has a loyal fanbase, its popularity peaked during its first two seasons (2019–2020). After a three-year hiatus, the final season didn't quite land with the same impact. Will The Mandalorian & Grogu reverse this trend? The trailer certainly sparks excitement, but it lacks the event-level buzz of earlier installments. Is this enough to push it past $1 billion? We're cautiously optimistic but not convinced.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 60%
3) *Toy Story 5*
The Toy Story franchise has been a box office juggernaut, but its trajectory isn't as straightforward as it seems. Adjusted for inflation, the first film would gross around $767 million, while Toy Story 3 peaked at $1.576 billion. However, Toy Story 4 dipped to $1.352 billion, leaving fans wondering if the series had run its course. Does the world really need a fifth installment? While it's unlikely to fall below $1 billion, don't expect it to match the success of Zootopia 2. The question remains: will audiences still care enough to show up in droves?
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 75%
2) *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*
The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) isn't the financial powerhouse it once was, but Tom Holland's Spider-Man remains a fan favorite. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is a smaller-scale follow-up to No Way Home, but that doesn't mean it can't pack a punch. Can a more intimate story still draw in massive crowds? We think so. While it won't reach No Way Home's $1.921 billion, it should comfortably surpass Far From Home's $1.133 billion.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 85%
1) *Avengers: Doomsday*
Love it or hate it, the MCU's Avengers: Doomsday is a lock for the billion-dollar club. With Robert Downey Jr. returning in a new role, this film is a must-see event. But here's the twist: even if it crosses $1 billion, will it be considered a success? With a rumored budget of over $600 million, the stakes are higher than ever. As the winter season's biggest release, Doomsday will not only test the MCU's financial might but also shape its future. Is this the make-or-break moment for the franchise? Only time will tell.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 100%
So, which of these 2026 blockbusters are you most excited about? Do you agree with our rankings, or do you think we've underestimated a dark horse contender? Let us know in the comments—we're eager to hear your take!
