The NHL's MVP Race is Heating Up: Who Will Take Home the Hart Trophy in 2026?
As we cross the halfway mark of the 2025-26 NHL season, the race for the Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) is intensifying, and some unexpected contenders are making their case. But here's where it gets controversial: could we see another goalie take home the coveted award, or will it be a forward's year to shine? Let's dive into the top 10 candidates and explore the possibilities.
Last season, Connor Hellebuyck became the first goaltender to win the MVP since Carey Price in 2015, proving that netminders can indeed dominate the conversation. This year, we've got a mix of familiar faces and rising stars vying for the top spot. And this is the part most people miss: the underlying metrics and advanced stats that reveal who's truly driving their team's success.
Top 10 Hart Trophy Contenders (January 2026 Update):
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche - Leading the pack is the Avalanche's powerhouse, MacKinnon. With 81 points (36 goals) through 45 games, he's on pace to shatter his career-high goal mark. His 68.3% On-Ice Expected Goals% (per MoneyPuck) is the league's best, and he's the only skater with over 200 shots on goal. But is his dominance enough to secure the MVP, or will his team's overall success dilute his individual impact?
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers - McDavid is in the midst of a historic 20-game point streak, averaging nearly a goal per game. His 23.5% Relative Expected Goals% is second only to MacKinnon. If he maintains this pace, could he overtake the top spot? Some argue that his team's performance isn't as dominant as the Avalanche's, which might sway voters.
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning - Kucherov's recent surge has propelled him into the top 3. During Tampa Bay's 11-game winning streak, he's tallied 25 points (10 goals). His 5.49 On-Ice Expected Goals Per 60 Minutes leads the league, but will his slower start to the season hurt his MVP chances?
Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks - The sophomore sensation is single-handedly keeping the Sharks in playoff contention. With 70 points (24 goals, 46 assists) through the halfway mark, he's on pace for a 120+ point season. If the Sharks make the playoffs, Celebrini's case becomes even stronger. But is he too young to win the MVP?
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers - Draisaitl is a perennial MVP contender, currently sitting fifth in league scoring with 67 points. Since December, he's been on fire, trailing only McDavid, MacKinnon, and Kucherov in points. However, his teammate McDavid's dominance might overshadow his own impressive season.
Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild - Kaprizov's underlying metrics are off the charts, with the third-most rebounds and a 60.2% On-Ice Expected Goals%. He's due for a scoring surge, but will it be enough to push him into the top 5?
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche - The lone defenseman on this list, Makar is a Norris Trophy favorite and the only blueliner with over 50 points. His 62% On-Ice Expected Goals% is elite, but can a defenseman truly win the MVP in today's NHL?
Mikko Rantanen & Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars - These two Stars are tied for the 8th spot, showcasing their incredible production. Rantanen's 62 points and Robertson's goal-scoring efficiency make them both strong candidates. But is sharing a spot a sign that neither will win the MVP?
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins - Pastrnak has been the Bruins' offensive focal point, with 56 points through 42 games. His recent surge has coincided with Boston's winning streak, but will his team's Wild Card status hurt his MVP chances?
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning - The lone goaltender on this list, Vasilevskiy has been elite since a slow start. With a 2.03 GAA and .921 SV% in his last 23 starts, he's making a case for back-to-back goalie MVPs. But can he overcome the bias against goaltenders winning the award?
Honorable Mentions: Matt Boldy, Tage Thompson, Sidney Crosby, Connor Bedard, Zach Werenski, Ilya Sorokin, and Scott Wedgewood are all knocking on the door.
Controversial Question: With goaltenders like Vasilevskiy and Wedgewood making strong cases, is it time to re-evaluate how we view the MVP award? Should team success be the primary factor, or should individual dominance take precedence? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
As the season unfolds, these rankings will undoubtedly shift. Who do you think will take home the Hart Trophy? Will it be a forward, defenseman, or another goalie? The debate is open, and we can't wait to hear your opinions!
