Here's a bold prediction: 2026 projections are going to miss the mark on one crucial factor—the unpredictable impact of environment on pitching performance. Spring training is in full swing, and it’s thrilling to see live baseball back in action. In this article, we’ll dive into some standout performances that have caught my eye—but with a twist. Before we get into that, mark your calendars for next week (around Wednesday) when I’ll be sharing my exclusive 1-30 pitching development rankings, crafted from insights gathered in a survey of over 50 MLB coaches and executives. You won’t want to miss it!
But here’s where it gets controversial: this spring, I’ve noticed data that just doesn’t align with my instincts. Take Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, for example. Their four-seam fastballs looked disastrous in their first starts, only to bounce back in their second outings. Richard Fitts suddenly showed significantly more movement on his four-seamer and sweeper on February 25th. And Rays prospect Ty Johnson? He’s throwing a four-seamer with 3 inches more vertical break than last year, despite no changes in release or spin. Is this a breakthrough, or is something else at play?
While I’m no expert in pitch modeling or environmental adjustments, I suspect wind is a major culprit—or perhaps it’s just flawed data. Baseball analyst Vivienne Pelletier highlights that crosswinds can alter a pitch by up to 4 inches. And this is the part most people miss: spring training stadiums lack the second and third decks found in MLB parks, which drastically changes the wind dynamics. As noted by former pitcher Robert Stock, air density also plays a significant role in pitch behavior. So, when I see a sudden spike in movement without changes in mechanics, I’m skeptical. My advice? Assume pitchers are performing as they did in the 2025 regular season until 2026 MLB data proves otherwise.
Now, let’s talk about a pitcher who had one of the worst seasons last year. I predict the Nationals will significantly reduce their reliance on four-seam and sinker pitches. Last season, they led the MLB with 55% fastball usage (combining four-seam and sinker). This spring, however, they’ve dropped to just 41.7%, second only to the Marlins. While clearer examples will emerge once the regular season begins, Andrew Irvin’s case is particularly intriguing. His projections are abysmal—around a 5.00 ERA in roughly 20 starts—but his spring adjustments suggest a potential turnaround.
Irvin has slashed his four-seam and sinker usage to 40% this spring, down from 54% last season. Against lefties, his curveball now leads the mix at 30%, followed by his cutter at 25%. Against righties, he’s tripled his short slider usage to 23%. The strategy? Reduce reliance on the four-seam fastball, which allowed a 16% barrel rate to righties and 12% to lefties. But will this shift be enough to defy the projections?
Here’s a thought to leave you with: If environmental factors like wind and air density can so dramatically alter pitch performance, should we be rethinking how we evaluate spring training data? Let me know your thoughts in the comments—I’m eager to hear if you agree or if you’ve got a different take on this!
